NFL Mock Draft 4.17 – a new #1 on Drew’s board

April 17th, 2009 by Drew Smith

1) Detroit Lions (0-16) Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia- I want to go on record as saying that I think this is a horrible pick for the Lions and will most likely be sitting with the #1 pick again next year and passing on a true franchise QB in Sam Bradford. I made the same argument about the JaMarcus Russell and refuse to accept even as his name was being called out that the Raiders would be foolish enough to give into the media pressures of taking a QB. I have learned my lesson and now believe that the Lions will give into the pressures of taking a Mel Kiper crowned ‘franchise’ quarterback. I understand that Stafford could work out but history says that the combination of being an underclassman, having a very low completion percentage in college, never showing any intangibles that he is a leader and having such a high cap number will make it highly unlikely. Basically the Lions are trying to convert 4^th and 16 from their 30 yard-line as time is running out. Good luck with that.

Michael Crabtree (Icon SMI)

2) St. Louis Rams(2-14) Jason Smith, OT, Baylor- The Rams have a huge debate as to take Smith or Eugene Monroe with this pick as they both grade out very similar. Monroe is a little more polished but Smith has the upside to be a dominant run blocker which the Rams seek in order to give Stephen Jackson more running lanes.

3) Kansas City Chiefs (2-14) Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech- The media has pegged Aaron Curry to the Chiefs from the start and I was in agreement up until now. As someone who has lived the NFL Draft for the last few months and am consistently updated my mock I can tell you that changing a pick that you have had from the start is often times difficult. We look for reasons to justify our pick even when the signs are pointing elsewhere and I think this is the case with the Chiefs. Most people are sticking with Curry in their mocks and it still makes sense but reading between the lines has me thinking the Chiefs are looking to improve their offense. The team has nabbed Matt Cassell to be their franchise quarterback and want to sling the ball around which means they need more than just Dwayne Bowe.

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4) Seattle Seahawks (4-12) Eugene Monroe, OT, Virgina- The Seahawks find themselves with a tough dilemma of picking a franchise tackle or the best defensive player on the board that just happens to fill a need. I could make a case to picking either Monroe or Aaron Curry here but the NFL has a history of valuing offensive tackles over linebackers so when in doubt, go with history.

5) Cleveland Browns (4-12) Aaron Curry, OLB, Wake Forest- The truth is that I have no clue what the Browns are doing as they seem like they are positioning themselves to have the first pick in next year’s draft. How is the team going to score any points if the trade Brady Quinn, Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow? The Browns could go with Brian Orakpo, Andre Smith, Everrette Brown, Chris Wells or ever Mark Sanchez with this pick but for the purpose of this mock I will pretend the Browns are rationale on draft day and select the top graded defensive player in Curry.

6) Cincinnati Bengals (4-11-1) Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas- The Bengals would of preferred to take B.J. Raji here but his off-the-field issues are a real concern that a franchise like Cincinnati can not afford to deal with. Andre Smith is a real option as he attempts to repair his value and would fill the biggest need.

7) Oakland Raiders (5-11) Andre Smith, OT, Alabama- The Raiders are a team like the Redskins that like to make flashy picks early which means that taking a Jeremy Maclin, Darius Heyward-Bey or even Michael Johnson is always an option with Al Davis. However, the Raiders want to run the ball and need some maulers on the line to accomplish this. Smith has had his issues but his talent to great for Davis to ignore and would certainly make new head coach Tom Cable happy.

8) Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11) B.J.Raji, DT, Boston College- The Jags need help at DT, CB and WR which leaves Raji as highest graded player at those three positions available. Vontae Davis and Jeremy Maclin are options but after reaching last year with Dereck Harvey look for the Jags to take the best available which is Raji.

9) Green Bay Packers 6-10) Aaron Maybin, DE/OLB, Penn State- Maybin had a fantastic pro day which solidified him as a Top 10 talent. The NFL loves upside and few defensive players possess more upside who has the size and speed to be a dominant player. The Packers will almost certainly go DE at this pick meaning Everett Brown and Michael Johnson are also in play.

10) San Francisco 49′ers (7-9) Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss- There is a split among the media as to whether the 49′ers are going to take a QB here at #10. I am on the side of the fence that says they will continue to build the team from the trenches and draft their franchise left tackle here. I suspect them to continue to fuel the fire that they want Sanchez which will lead to them getting an 1^st pick next year in a trade with someone like the Vikings desperate to get their hands on elite QB prospect.

11) Buffalo Bills (7-9) Everett Brown DE/OLB, FSU- Brown is dropping slightly in the draft because of his size but is just too quick for the Bills to overlook as they need a pure pass rusher.

12) Denver Broncos (8-8) Clay Matthews, OLB, USC- Matthews - The Jay Cutler is a ‘big whining baby’ drama is over and now the Broncos can move forward. If Sanchez were to be available here I would expect the Broncos to give it heavy consideration despite the fact I think they are content with Chris Simms and Kyle Orton. Matthews has gone from a back-up at the start of the season for USC to being the first Trojan linebacker selected in the draft. Matthews has the pedigree, the toughness and the versatility that makes him a solid pick at #12.

13) Washington Redskins (8-8) Mark Sanchez, QB, USC- The Redskins are desperately trying to move away from Jason Campbell and Sanchez is the perfect fit for Jim Zorn’s offense. I do not think Sanchez will fall to them at #13 as someone is trading up to grab him but don’t be surprised if that team is the Redskins.

14) New Orleans Saints (8-8) Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State- The Saints will be tempted to take Clay Matthews but in the end the chance to address their secondary with a player who some view as still a Top 10 pick is too much to pass up. It is funny how people take a fact and then run with it and next thing you know the Saints are a lock to take a RB with the #14 pick. The truth is that the Saints will look to add another back in the fold but the likelihood of them reaching with their first pick seems highly unlikely.

15) Houston Texans (8-8) Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois- The Texans seemed poised to go defense with this pick and was hoping Matthews fell to them. With him off the board look for Houston to snag arguable the top corner in the draft in Davis . He has some question marks regarding his work ethic and attitude but his talent warrants the risk at #15.

16) San Diego Chargers (8-8) Ray Maualuga, MLB, USC- The Chargers are hoping that Oher falls to them but his stock is on fire and appears like he will be gone by time they pick. Maualuga is the fall-back plan and will be an easy selection for the Chargers.

17) New York Jets (9-7) Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri- The Jets need another weapon on offense to help whichever of their young quarterbacks is the starters and Maclin is just that type of player. His 40times were a tad bit disappointing but like Felix Jones last year he is just someone that plays faster than their 40. Maclin will also be able to help in the return game as the Jets hope to increase the offensive load of Leon Washington. A lot of people are speculating a RB with this pick but the Jets are not in a rebuilding mode so selecting a back with the 17^th pick when they have Thomas Jones and Leon Washington already on the roster doesn’t make a lot of sense.

18) Denver Broncos – from Chicago (9-7) Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU- Jackson hasn’t had the most impressive off-season but he fits the Broncos needs perfectly. It is tough to predict if the Broncos value the DE or the LB higher which means they could easily take Jackson at #12 and look for a LB here.

19) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7) Michael Johnson, DE, Georgia Tech- The Bucs no longer are in the market for a QB with the signing of Bryon Leftwich so that takes Josh Freeman off the board. The Bucs could go DE, DT or WR with this pick but with word coming out that Johnson is viewed very highly this makes a great spot to select him as he could go as high as #7 to the Raiders.

20) Detroit Lions – from Dallas (9-7) Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss- The Lions need an franchise left tackle to protect Stafford but didn’t get one of the big 4 to drop. They could attempt to reach for a OT here but after feeling guilty about taking Stafford I suspect the Lions front office goes with the best value here which is Jerry. Robert Ayers has seen his stock rising fast and is an option for Detroit as well.

21) Philadelphia Eagles (9-6-1) Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee- Andy Reid loves taking defensive ends and Ayers is too good of a value for him to pass up on. I fully expect the Eagles to trade up and down and all around so the likelihood of them picking here is slim but if they do Ayers makes the most sense.

22) Minnesota Vikings (10-6) Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State- The Vikings will succumb to the pressures and select their quarterback here even though Eben Britton might make more sense. Freeman is a Dante Culpepper type talent that some people claim to like him more than Sanchez. I really don’t have a problem with the Vikings attempting to snag their franchise quarterback her as the cost of signing Freeman makes him a low risk with huge returns, something the Lions could have done easily with taking Freeman with the 20^th pick.

23) New England Patriots (11-5) James Laurinaitis, LB, USC- The Patriots seem almost a lock to select a linebacker with this pick and Laurinaitis has the on-the-field leadership that the Patriots love. Don’t rule out a RB being selected here as the Patriots could be intrigued with the top backs still on the board as a ‘value’ pick.

24) Atlanta Falcons (11-5) Evander Hood, DT, Missouri- The Falcons have two areas that they would like to address with the TE position and DT. The TE position looks quite deep in the next few rounds so look for them to eye a DT with this pick. Jerry is the player they hope fall but won’t complain about settling for Hood.

25) Miami Dolphins (11-5) Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina- The Dolphins would love to see one of the OLB fall to them but with them all off the board look for them to address the receiver position with a polished ready to play wide receiver in Nicks. Dolphins GM said if the season started today that Greg Camarillo would start opposite Ted Ginn which is just another reason why I can see them going WR here.

26) Baltimore Ravens (11-5) Sean Smith, CB, Utah- Smith is a big physical defensive back that answered the question of whether he was fast enough to play CB in the NFL. However his size will allow the Ravens to use him in the nickel/dime coverages out the gate as he eases into the starting role at CB.

27) Indianapolis Colts (12-4) Darius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland- This day and age the NFL is about picking a side and doing it better than anyone else whether it is defense or offense. The Colts are on the offensive side and must surround Peyton Manning with plenty of weapons in order to be successful. A running back is an option as the Colts love to select the best player available in the first round but Heyward-Bey is too exciting to pass on.

28) Philadelphia Eagles – from Carolina (12-4) Eben Britton, OT, Arizona- Everything is in place for the Eagles to select Britton as they have a need for a OT, they love selecting big lineman and Britton will be considered a value at #28. They will be tempted to grab a running back here but with them all falling they will have plenty of opportunity to get one in the next few rounds.

29) New York Giants (12-4) Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers- Plax has his legal problems and Amani Toomer is gone making the receiver position something that needs to be addressed in the draft. Britt being a local star brings very good speed for his size and would be able to help Eli and the offense this season.

30) Tennessee Titans (13-3) Darius Butler, CB, UConn- Robert Ayers is the ideal pick for the Titans but he is off the board so look for the Titans look to look for the best value which just happens to be a need for the team at CB. Obviously the WR position is a glaring need for the team but when hasn’t it been and the Titans just don’t care. I do not see them taking a receiver if five are already off the board.

31) Arizona Cardinals (9-7) Max Unger, Oregon, C- The Cardinals need a pass rusher and help with the interior of their line. The biggest knock with Unger is with his run blocking but since the Cards don’t need to run the ball they will look at him as perfect fit who can play a multiple of positions.

32) Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) Alphonso Smith, CB, Wake Forest- The Steelers need help in the interior of the offensive line and the secondary. With Smith still on the board the Steelers will jump all over him and look to grab some guards and centers in the next few rounds.

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