PAC 10 Preview: Arizona Wildcats
July 22nd, 2008 by Alex English
Arizona Tech… Arizona Red Wildcats… perhaps Texas Tech West… Fantasy players relying on any of Mike Stoops’ aerial options this season hope all of those monikers will fit. In the second year under O-Coordinator Sonny Dykes’ spread system (the playbook is directly from Texas Tech with the changes basically limited to an A logo slapped over the double Ts), Mike Stoops’ job may be on the line along with the fantasy seasons of those who count heavily on QB Willie Tuitama and WR Mike Thomas (right, Icon SMI).
Tuitama (Sr.) set school records last season for TD passes (28) and passing yards (3,683) in his first year in the new pass happy look. This year both Stoops and Dykes have indicated that they plan to rely on Willie’s big right arm even more as well as take more shots downfield, something lacking from the attack last season. After a concussion-filled 2006 sophomore season nearly ended his playing days, it was nice to see Tuitama not only stay healthy but demonstrate plenty of toughness and durability amidst 524 attempts. Slinging the ball behind an improved O-line should help even more to make ‘06 a distant memory and give owners even more confidence in his health this season.
Tuitama is set to improve on last year’s already impressive numbers with 10 returning offensive starters around him. I’m buying…with confidence and probably at a discount while hoping for only slightly lesser Graham Harrell type numbers. Those may be lofty expectations and an unfair comparison based solely off the playbook. However, if Harrell is the Rolls Royce this year (and he is), I will take a Mercedes-like Tuitama at a more reasonable Camry-ish lease/draft price. Between Washington’s Jake Locker and Tuitama, the Pac-10 is offering some potentially high value options if you choose to wait on a QB after the top 5 or 6 go in the draft.
Adding to Tuitama’s value, as well as your list of high end fantasy WR options, is the Pac-10′s returning leader in receptions, Mike Thomas. Thomas’ 83 grabs from a year ago will not only increase and lead the conference again, but don’t be surprised to see him crack 100 as the feature guy in the offense. There also seems to be just the right mix of talent around him to keep defenses honest without detracting from his touches. The other WRs deployed into opposing secondaries may not be fantasy roster worthy just yet but they are capable. Terrell Turner , Delashaun Dean and Terrell Reese will see plenty of balls amongst them. If (gulp) the tiny (5′-8" 195 lb) Thomas goes down with injury for any length of time, you will want to be quick to figure out who would emerge in the leading role.
Sophomore TE Rob Gronkowski is one of the legit, top shelf TEs in the country in terms of both talent and fantasy value. At 6’6" 260 lbs, Gronkowski caught 28 passes last year and the emphasis on getting him more involved in the passing game was crystal clear in Spring. Unlike many top fantasy TEs this season, Gronkowski has a big time WR breaking the huddle with him and that should help open up plenty of soft spots in the complex nickel and dime zone schemes the Wildcats will face. Combine that with his hands and route running skills at his size, not to mention the sheer number of passing attempts in that O, and Gronkowski could be a huge breakout stud at a limited fantasy position.
Although RB Nic Grigsby (So.) is the returning starter and leading rusher, he is really nothing more than a fantasy annoyance for Tuitama owners. Don’t count on Grigsby to be fantasy worthy himself but he is good enough to warrant more offensive balance (and I use that word very loosely here) than Harrell and Texas Tech will have with the same scheme. Therein lies that Rolls vs. Mercedes issue. Grigsby and that semblance of balance he brings to the ‘Zona offense may generally be bad for Tuitama owners, but on the flip side it could play a key role in the upswing in Ws and Ls for the Wildcats. The silver lining is that the run game could be just good enough to help open up that new emphasis on the deep ball to Thomas.
Defensively, all you need to know is that Stoops lost his biggest defensive playmaker, CB Antoine Cason and returns only 3 starters. Steer clear. The special teams is a different story with Thomas as a big time home run threat as a return man on both punts and kicks and Jason Bondzio back from a 21-26 performance (8-10 from 40+) and a legit 50 yard leg.
There is a solid trio of fantasy studs here. I really like Thomas as a top 10 WR, Tuitama as a great mid-rounds QB option and love Gronkowski as a big time TE value pick. My guess is the Wildcats will have a fairly impressive offensive breakthrough this year in their second effort in Sonny Dykes system. 35 points per game and very useful if not spectacular fantasy seasons from these 3 are not a stretch at all. Stoops hopes a bowl game and a contract extension aren’t either.
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