PAC 10 Preview: Washington Huskies
July 18th, 2008 by Alex English
Do you have a favorite chair or spot on the sofa in the living room for college football Saturdays? Well, Ty Willingham has the exact opposite of that and his plugs in and heats up… way up. Willingham finds himself back in his familiar hot seat this season. However, unlike at Notre Dame (when the recline lever turned into his eject lever) he has an ace (make that fantasy ace) in the hole in QB Jake Locker (right, Icon SMI) that could help pull the plug on the unwanted seat warmer. After school officials publicly mandated a winning season, Willingham won’t be afraid to rely very heavily on Locker which could be great news for his fantasy owners this season.
Read this next statement very slow and deliberately and let it all sink in with deep breaths and an open mind. Jake Locker is in the same mold and just as talented as Tim Tebow. There, I said it. Bold?…Maybe. Arguable?…Sure. Said simply for dramatic effect?…No way. I am not talking about a “poor man’s” Tim Tebow here. I am talking about an equally adept run and pass threat on the other coast that simply has fewer top shelf talent studs around him and a little less experience.
At 6-3 225 lbs with legit WR/RB type speed, this kid is already being talked about as a big time NFL prospect. As a freshman last season, the most highly anticipated freshman Huskies QB (since Warren Moon) rushed and passed for a combined 27 TDs and over 3,000 yards, including a conference QB rushing record 986 yards. He put these numbers up despite missing a game and half due to injury suffered in the Oregon State game.
Now a sophomore armed with a year of starting experience and a strong o-line, there is plenty of reason to expect even bigger numbers from Locker this season. He will continue to be relied on in the ground game. Probably even more so with the departure of leading rusher Louis Rankin so expecting him to eclipse 1,000 yards on the ground is very reasonable. If there was a knock on his game as a freshman, it was a less than stellar 47.3 completion percentage. That deficiency simply highlights the high ceiling he has in the passing game this season. If he can improve the passing efficiency, he could certainly eclipse the 4,000 yard mark in total offense (Tebow posted 4,181 in his Heisman campaign last year by comparison). I am not so enamored that I expect Locker to lead the Huskies to the same scoring production that Tebow will with the Gators. Therefore, keeping pace with Tebow’s 55 TDs from a year ago should not be relied on but I do expect a notable addition to his 27 combined scores from a year ago.
Locker isn’t cracking many top 10 fantasy QB lists or top 50 overall players lists so far this pre-season. Much like if you miss out on the early Manning and Brady-esque run on top tier QBs in an NFL fantasy draft, there may be some merit in a strategy to grab other position values early and bide your time for a value like Locker with a later pick. That is if you don’t (or choose not to) land one of the ‘big 5′ (Harrell, Tebow, LeFevour, Daniel, White) in the first round. The question is will the difference in the top QBs numbers be a wider gap to a guy like Locker or will the top RB and WR numbers have a greater gap to the second tier guys production at those positions? My guess is the later so I will be targeting Locker with confidence. In this “QB later” strategy, Locker finds himself in a relatively large crop of “2nd tier” fantasy signal callers but he may offer a bigger up-side than all of them. This comes with the diversity of his ground and air game, the strides expected in his second year at the helm and the fact that Willingham will be relying heavily on him (as opposed to babying his usage especially in the ground game) to keep his job.
The biggest knock on Locker may actually be the skill position experience around him…although there is plenty of young talent in place of experience. In addition to losing Rankin’s team leading 1,294 yards rushing, the Huskies graduated 5 senior WRs. Rankin will be replaced at tailback by sophomore Brandon Johnson who flashed plenty of skill in a 121 yard performance filling in for Rankin in his lone start last year. If that performance is less of a flash in the pan and more of a glimpse of even greater things to come, Johnson could be a bit of a sleeper himself this season and certainly one to keep an eye on for the future. Pushing Johnson will be two highly regarded freshman burners, Johri Fogerson and Demitrius Bronson. Many think those two are talented enough to warrant a committee and keep Johnson out of a fantasy worthy feature role.
Replacing the 5 departed senior WRs will be a quintet that may actually have more physical tools and skill than their predecessors despite their youth and inexperience. There probably isn’t a clear front runner of the four for the lion’s share of the passing game which limits their fantasy appeal despite their immense individual potential. Sophomore D’Andre Goodwin is the elder statesman and most likely to secure a starting role in the platoon. However, the most intriguing and likely to emerge as eventual stud is freshman Chris Polk. Polk spurned USC late in the recruiting process and opted to leave his home state of California for Washington (likely in favor of the chance at early stardom on the receiving end of Lockers passes) and then graduated early from high school to enroll in time to compete in Spring ball. Freshman Davin Aguilar, Anthony Boyles and Alvin Logan round out the rotation. With all the youth at wide out, the leading returning receiver label defaults to TE Michael Gottlieb (12 rec, 136 yards). Bear in mind, that he does not factor heavily into the offensive production or fantasy relevance, especially with talented freshman Chris Izbicki and Kavario Middleton challenging for a time share.
Defensively, let’s just say that another upshot for Locker is that he and the offense will have to outscore opponents this year as a defense that allowed nearly 450 yards per game returns only 6 starters. Perkins is a steady but unspectacular returning kicker who connected on 15 of 20 attempts last season with a long of 45.
Willingham has his hopes and his job pinned squarely on Lockers shoulders which isn’t a bad place to have to pin them. I won’t hesitate to grab top shelf WRs and RB early in drafts and pin my fantasy season hopes on Locker at QB either. If he stays healthy, carries the load he figures to on the ground and through the air, improves his completion percentage and the young talented WR corps grows quickly… Look out for this poor… er, slightly less wealthy man’s Tebow.
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