Power I: Week 2 Thoughts on RBs
September 4th, 2008 by Drew Smith
The first week of the fantasy season is always the roughest on owners as it is filled with many meaningless games, big surprises and major disappointments. No other week has as much volatility between expected performance and actual performance than this past week. First off, most games offered very little insight into the value of players because a majority of the games are extremely lopsided. I call them meaningless because they are no different than pre-season games in the NFL. While most of the performances on the surface offer little value, there are still plenty of useful data if you dig a little deeper.
Here are the performances that I feel can be used to make decisions because they were either “Wow, I liked that” or “Ughh. What was that?”
Wow, I liked that.
James Starks, Buffalo: Starks (top right, Icon SMI) started out strong this season with a great performance versus UTEP running 31-179-0. This against a defense that is expected to be better than most of the MAC teams he will face. This week he plays Pitt which should be a tough matchup for him. However, if you have no great alternatives I could think of worse backs to start.
Richard Arnold, Arkansas St.: Whenever you see a strong rushing performance from a Sun Belt back against a big program like Texas A&M, you have to take notice. Arnold finished with a 21-145-0 line and appears like he will have a chance to be this year’s Calvin Dawson.
Ryan Matthews, Fresno St.: Matthews was a back that I seemed higher on than most people and he made me look good the first week against Rutgers running for 26-163-3. Also I loved the fact that he dominated the number of carries since Fresno has a history of rotating backs. You should be feeling pretty good if you are sitting with Matthews on your fantasy roster.
Terrence Blevins, Eastern Michigan: I am not someone that puts a lot of value on Div 1AA opponents and in fact I feel strongly they shouldn’t even count for wins nor stats but that is for another discussion. With that said Blevins looked very strong against Indiana State running for 21-176-2 and is someone that is on my radar to watch in the next few weeks.
Donald Brown, UConn: The fact that Brown ran for 23-146-4 against Hofstra is a non-event in itself because UConn splits carries in general and Hofstra is hardly a challenging foe. The reason Brown gets mentioned is that Andre Dixon’s ankle injury appears worse than expected which makes Brown an excellent short-term starter.
DuJuan Harris, Troy: Harris gets mentioned because a lot of people were predicting Colorado transfer Maurice Greer to steal most of the carries but he finished with 2 carries for 1 yard. Harris went 19-148-2 against Sun Belt rival Middle Tennessee St and while he is unlikely to get enough carries to be a stud back, he can be used in spot starts for you.
Leon Wright-Jackson, Hawaii : OK it is true that 7 rushes for 33 yards and 4 catches for 39 yards is a worthless fantasy stat line but I think this is a perfect buying opportunity for Wright-Jackson. If you had the chance to watch the game, you would of saw a RB that was quite impressive showing nice speed and who almost always broke the first tackle. Unfortunately, the Gators always had plenty of players around to gang tackle him but that won’t be the case in conference play.
Ughh. What was that?
LeSean McCoy, Pitt: Wow! I am still in shock at how Bowling Green totally man-handled the Panthers and shut down McCoy. The final line for McCoy of 23-71-1 against an average MAC team is very alarming but way too early to panic. The Panthers have an easy schedule all year and hopefully this game will serve as a wake-up call.
Josh Adams, Wake Forest : On paper this was a matchup that Adams owners were drooling over but instead were left with a sour taste in their mouths. The Demon Deacons could not get anything going on the ground as a team and Adams finished with 14-37-1 line. It is still early but Adams must be benched for now until we see some signs that Wake Forest can get their running game going.
Arian Foster, Tennessee : Disclaimer: I do not have Arian Foster in any of my fantasy leagues but that doesn’t prevent me from hating Volunteers running backs and you should too for fantasy purposes. I think I might implement a ‘Do Not Draft a Tennessee Running Back for Your Fantasy Team’ Movement as it is just maddening to understand what they are doing. If I didn’t know better, I would swear Phil Fulmer is purposely trying to prove fantasy writers wrong by doing the opposite of what we write. Foster averaged 7.4 ypc on his way to 96 yards on 13 carries while QB Jonathan Crompton only completed 19 of 41 passes. Montario Hardesty added 12 carries for 66 yards and 2 TDs just to further confuse the situation. In the past two seasons, the Vols were 9-1 when Foster got 15+ carries in a game with their only loss to the eventual National Champions LSU Tigers last year 21-14. If Foster has a big game against UAB, I recommend trading him to free yourself of the impossible task of understanding something that can not be understood.
Greg Little, North Carolina : Little was one of those backs that received a ton of hype before the season after finishing last season strong. However he couldn’t get anything going against Div 1AA McNeese State and finished 14-37-1. Little faces a Rutgers team that couldn’t stop the Fresno running game so he will have a good matchup to gain some fantasy momentum back.
Ryan McCants, Oregon St.: McCants looks like a huge fantasy bust after rushing 4 times for 11 yards against Stanford. I have a hard time recommending waiving someone expected to be good so soon but honestly I have lost almost all confidence in McCants and the Oregon St running game.
Jake Sharp, Kansas: A lot of people jumped on the Sharp bandwagon leading up to the start of the season. Time to jump off! Sharp finished 9-29-0 against FIU and doesn’t appear to have the confidence of the Jayhawks coaching staff.
Josh Haden, Boston College: Haden wasn’t on a lot of people’s radar but he was someone that I thought was in the ‘right place, right time’ to have significant fantasy value. However it looks like the Eagles coaching staff will be splitting carries between Haden and Jeff Smith which will sap most of the fantasy value from the Boston College running backs.
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