When it comes to RBs, the SEC has been a bit weird the last few years.  Most college teams fall into one of two RB camps: primary back or stable of equal backs, which is often code for “we have no talent in our backfield, so we’re trotting these three guys out here and just hoping one of them gets hot.”  (What little is left loosely translates as “we have no running game” or “Texas Tech.)  The SEC is a weird hybrid of these two camps; virtually all the teams in the SEC employ some kind of stable in the backfield save one or two, but those players are often talented enough to start elsewhere.  The net result is a deep overall RB corps that doesn’t always translate well to fantasy.  The talent is certainly there, but the opportunity may not be.

 

 1: Charles Scott, LSU

It feels odd to rank any RB from LSU as the best overall in the conference since LSU has been one of the biggest proponents of the mass RB strategy – or at least it seems that way.  In reality, the last two years have been primary-back years, and Scott benefited last year to the tune of 1,174 yards and 18(!) TDs.  Sure, he had no involvement in the passing game, but who cares?  If the other guys in the backfield couldn’t take carrier from him and he’s outrushing the #2 LSU rusher to the tune of 3:1, I think he’ll be all right to take early.  Also nice: Scott not only had the most yards by far, he also had the most ypc (5.41) of anyone with more than 25 carries, and nearly of anyone with more than 15 carries (Trindon Holliday just beat him).  The TDs may not be there as much as they were last year, but he should be close.

 2: Michael Smith, Arkansas

Smith is the clear starter at Arkansas and racked up about 1,075 yards and 8 TDs (chipping in another 300 receiving yards and 2 TDs).  Unlike Scott, Smith has some competition from the locals, but the locals are also all unproven at Arkansas (and he lapped the competition and a half last year), so there’s no reason to think it’ll be any different this year for Smith.  Expect upwards of 1,300 multipurpose yards and in the neighborhood of 12 TDs.  One caveat, though; he’s not the beefiest guy, so he’s more likely to break down than the guys around him on this list.

3: Mark Ingram, Alabama

He’ll definitely be Back A in the Tide’s schemes; what we don’t know is how he’ll deal with it.   Ingram certainly has the talent to push the 1,000 yard barrier with 10 TDs; what separates him from the top two is that he hasn’t done that yet.  He has more risk than anyone around him, but it’s not inconceivable that he will turn up as the best fantasy RB when it’s all said and done.  If for some reason he’s still floating around in dynasty leagues, he jumps to the top of this list, as everyone around him on this list is a senior.

 4a: Ben Tate, Auburn

Well, Brad Lester’s finally gone, meaning Tate should get the ball all to himself – right?  Well, Mario Fannin is there acting like he’s going to steal carries (and Lord only knows how much Kodi Burns will suck useless plays that could’ve gone to Tate), but that hasn’t been the case.  Tate’s biggest problem last year (664, 3 TDs) was the 12 in the box since Auburn’s passing attack resembled North Korea’s ballistic missile tests. If Auburn’s passing attack can consistently – or even semi-consistently – get that 8th guy out of the box, Tate could end up around 950 / 7 TDs which was similar to his 2007 season.  Otherwise, last year is the worst he’ll do.

 4b: Anthony Dixon, Mississippi State

Dixon’s a lot like Tate, except a little less exciting – and amazingly, Dixon has an even more ineffective passing game to deal with.  As such, Dixon’s margin for error is a bit smaller, but he’ll likely be in the 800-900 / 5-7 TD range.

 5: Caleb King, Georgia

He didn’t have a great ypc last year (4.0), but that was in part due to the offensive line.  Georgia’s line should be healthy and deep this year, meaning if King can get around 4.5 ypc and 20-25 carries a game, he’ll be in line for a quality season – likely one similar to what Mark Ingram could put up.  What separates King from the others above him is not only has King not done anything like that in college before, we don’t know if the offensive line will stay healthy enough for King to succeed – and there’s enough talent behind King that they could easily suck carries if King struggles early.

6: Chris Rainey, Florida / Jeffrey Demps, Florida

Really, these guys are the same guy.  Last year, Rainey did a bit better in the raw yardage department (652 to 605) but Demps beat him back on TDs (7 to 4).  At that level, and with the Florida offense, predicting TDs is somewhat of a crapshoot, but barring injury these guys will put up similar (if not improved) numbers than what they had last season.  They’ll be challenged by not having a gamebreaker like Harvin in the backfield. On the other hand, they both averaged 7.8 ypc (yes, you read that right), so it won’t be too insurmountable.  They get dinged here because …well, they’re two guys.  Unpredictability is not your friend.

7: Bryce Brown, Tennessee

Are you a believer?  If you are, you’ll like Brown, whose recruitment was a big deal not only because of the circus surrounding his handler, but because Brown is really freakin’ good.  Lennon Creer was his biggest threat to consistent PT – Montario Hardesty seems destined to play RB #2, which is a bit of a shame – which means Brown should be in good shape to take over the primary back duties.  We don’t know how Lane Kiffin will run his offense (other than “by secondary violation”), but there’s at best a quasi-stable of backs in Tennessee, of which Brown is the best horse.  While I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up around 800 / 8 TDs, there’s a lot of volatility here; not only is there no passing game to speak of (8 man fronts hello!) but expecting 800 / 8 out of a true freshman is a bit …risky.  He’s obviously a big, big deal in dynasty format.  Do what you have to in order to get him there.

8: Cordera Eason, Ole Miss

Eason was a bit surprising last year as the leading rusher on the team for a RB (Dexter McCluster counts as a WR here) since Enrique Davis got all the hype.  Well, Davis fell the way of so many hyped freshmen and struggled, leaving Eason to get around 625 with 3 TDs (chipping in a couple of multipurpose TDs as a receiver).  Eason has a bit of danger behind him – if you believe in Enrique, you’ve already moved on – but Eason has the track record and should do better than 5 TDs overall.

9: Emmanuel Moody, Florida

He has the raw talent to excel.  However, what he doesn’t have is a track record at Florida and he has to contend with the raging speedsters that are the Rainey / Demps combo.  I suspect Moody will pick up some close-in TDs (the ones that Tebow doesn’t steal) that Rainey and Demps won’t end up with, but because of the massive quantity of people in the Florida backfield, anything above 55 / 6 TDs is gravy to me.

 Things get even more confusing after this.  Here are some guys worth targeting in deeper drafts:

10: Montario Hardesty, Tennessee

Solid pick, moderate upside if Brown gets injured and/or struggles.

11: Terry Grant, Alabama

Top talent, but in a rough situation since playing behind Mark Ingram.  He will also have to deal with Roy Upchurch and Trent Richardson, who’s also a top talent.  Unlike the others, Grant has a track record, but this is shaping up like another ball-control Tide team.

12: Jarvis Giles, South Carolina

The South Carolina tailback situation is a mess, but Giles is the best talent there, so why not?  He’ll likely split some carries with Brian Maddox.  Not a guy I’d look at drafting anywhere except deep dynasty, and in shallower dynasty leagues Giles is worth watching to see if he’s worth going after later in the season.

13: Jared Hawkins, Vanderbilt

Completely unassuming pick, completely unexciting – but he’s the feature back at Vandy if you’re into those kinds of things.

14: Derrick Locke, Kentucky

He’s fast.  That’s about it.  He isn’t durable enough to serve as a feature back though, meaning he’s a feast / famine type.

15: De’Anthony Curtis, Arkansas

He’s Michael Smith’s injury replacement. He’s talented in his own right, too – worth looking at in dynasty.

16: Richard Samuel, Georgia

Don’t look at last year’s UGA RB distribution; this’ll be a more even distribution.  Samuel’s the guy you want to remember if Caleb King goes down.

 

Here are the other random guys, in no particular order:

 

Broderick Green – Arkansas (can he get eligible?)

Dennis Johnson – Arkansas

Mario Fannin – Auburn (more hype than substance)

Robert Elliot – Mississippi State (dynasty pick, perhaps)

Keiland Williams – LSU

Richard Murphy – LSU

Roy Upchurch – Alabama

Trent Richardson – Alabama (dynasty alert!)

Enrique Davis – Ole Miss (he flies up this list if he’s figured out how to block)

Alfonso Smith – Kentucky

David Oku – Tennessee (may redshirt, dynasty alert)

Brian Maddox – South Carolina

Related posts:

1. SEC Breakdowns & Projections
2. SEC Bookends: Unusual Suspects
3. Running Through the Pac 10 Runningbacks
4. Running Through the Big 12 Runningbacks
5. SEC Bookends: Threat Down

Tags: SEC