SEC Preview: Mississippi State Bulldogs
July 17th, 2008 by Chris Pendley
As successful as Mississippi State was last year, their bowl eligibility and 8-5 record was predicated largely on – of all things – interception returns for TDs. Consider that wins over Auburn and Alabama were defined by pick sixes (with a margin of victory within a TD). If those interceptions didn’t happen, an 8-5 great story turns into a 5-7 mild disappointment.
By no means should this take anything away from the job Sylvester Croom has done with this team. He’s taken a perennial three-game winner, decimated by Jackie Sherrill and turned it into a respectable SEC West team. OC Woody McCorvey is tasked with getting something…anything…out of the passing game and DC Charlie Harbison moves up from coaching the safeties to taking over one of the most opportunistic defenses out there.
Speaking of which, Mississippi State’s defense did a fantastic job not only of keeping the team in games, but providing scoring on their own. They had a total of five (!) INT returns for TDs last year and coupled with a punt return TD, provided one of the biggest scoring punches in fantasy last year. Most of the defense returns, including all of the secondary. While expecting 6 TDs from this D will probably be a little too much to expect, this is an experienced 11 players and they’re worth owning in all formats.
More importantly, the defense will have to succeed because there’s not a whole lot of offensive help on the horizon. The QB stable should be less injured this season, yet Wesley Carroll wasn’t exactly good last year (although interception machine Michael Henig is gone, presumably following Reggie Ball to the unemployment line). He does have a cannon and eligibility on his side (sophomore), but even with substantial improvement he won’t sniff starting lineups in all but the deepest fantasy leagues.
Anthony Dixon is the stud, both in real life and fantasy, for this offense. He topped 1,000 yards last year along with 14 TDs and there’s not a whole lot of reason to think things will change this year. Christian Ducre and Robert Elliott will function as his backups; Ducre brings the experience while Elliott brings big-play ability. Neither will be worth owning unless Dixon goes down for a significant amount of time. Of the two, Elliott is the one worth monitoring in keeper leagues if Dixon declares for the draft after the season.
The pickings at WR are pretty slim. Jamayel Smith is the leading returning WR with just over 500 yards and 3 TDs, which should tell you everything you need to know. Again, if Carroll shows improvement this crew should improve but for fantasy purposes ignore these guys.
K Adam Carlson has solid accuracy within 40 yards, yet he’s spotty outside beyond that range. Consider that it’s not going to be too likely Mississippi State will get inside the 20 and it’s probably safe to ignore Carlson unless the Bulldog offense goes wild.
Summary
Aside from Dixon and the D, there isn’t a whole lot from a fantasy perspective here. In a way, that’s fitting for the Bulldogs, who clearly aren’t good enough to hang with the top players in the SEC West. However, the team is capable of pulling the occasional upset. They’re a perfectly fine real-life team, but not a whole lot to write home about here.
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