Six most intriguing WR issues in fantasy college football
November 6th, 2008 by Vince Mullins
To say I am overstimulated (read:confused) right now would be an immense understatement – we have our first minority president, I am packing for my first skiing trip ever (Florida boy needs some thermals), I just finished up our playoff live blog with Drew and a couple superusers, earlier I had a rehearsal for a church performance arts show (more on that later), and I am running through a bunch of stockcharts in order to see if the market has hit a bottom.
And yes, I am also fulfilling my sacred obligation to you to break down the weekend’s college football matchups as you prepare for likely playoff matchups. But you know I wouldn’t have it any other way.
With the playoffs approaching, you know who the permastarters are by now, so I will highlight the most intriguing items that I see going into the weekend. And a couple of sit recommendations. And yes, you can expect a heavy dose of Oklahoma State Cowboys at the Texas Tech Raiders info…
1. Mike Crabtree’s ankle is no big deal – he hobbled off early, but like any legend he closed with intensity with the deciding TD with one second left to beat Texas. The gauntlet continues as they host Oklahoma State this weekend and Crabtree cannot be stopped by mere mortals. The reemergence of Ed Britton as WR4 (Detron Lewis and Eric Morris have had consistent seasons) forces defenses to play basic defenses and negates the ability to consistently double cover Crabtree. Permastarter indeed.
2. Tulsa is off; also no big deal – only Brennan Marion averages over 50 ypg and Charles Clay is the second best fantasy option (when healthy) behind QB David Johnson. Golden Hurricane teases us with all the touchdowns but when five players have 7+ TD (three of them WR) it is fantasy suicide to try and pick one for your WR2 spot. be thankful you don’t have to worry about it this week.
3. SMU is starting to figure out the offense – especially at home… throw out the long road trip to Annapolis in the pouring rain and the long road trip to Orlando and the Mustangs are starting to look the part of a June Jones offense. They host the 91st ranked defense on the BlitzIndex of Memphis and those Tigers give up lots of big plays – add in they are down to a backup QB and the Tigers could give up short fields all day. Memphis also is 87th in the nation in takeaways (QB Bo Levi Mitchell‘s main weakness) Get Aldrick Robinson and Emmanuel Sanders in your lineups.
4. Dez Bryant is stoppable - he is 18 inches off the nation’s lead for yards per game receiving and leads the nation in TD catches. He has five multi-TD games and returns punts (two for TD). He earned our “Find your Strength” Army Player of the Week. While he is a highlight film waiting to happen, unfortunately he also has been kept out of the EZ in four games including Texas and Missouri. In his defense we can throw out the hurricane ravaged Missouri State game, but his record of not reaching paydirt in big games is concerning as we open up the playoff rounds. In reality, he likely gets coverage to overcompensate for his skills and that helps the Pokes (the only undefeated team ATS this season)- but in fantasy I must be objective and point out this disturbing trend of him not statting in big games. Play him, but adjust your expectations.
5. Use a TE as a WR if you need it - Missouri’s Chase Coffman is 20th in the nation in ypg receiving and third in receptions. Rice James Casey is second in the nation with almost nine catches per game and essentially tied with Jarett Dillard for fourth in the nation in ypg. BYU Dennis Pitta has had his share of solid games. And Oklahoma Jermaine Gresham may be the most talented receiver on the Oklahoma squad and is ninth in the nation in receiving TDs.
If you need a shot in the arm for your playoffs, look at some TEs with good matchups (see Gronk below). Color outside the lines. Think outside the box. Just don’t run with scissors.
6. Eric Decker ankle injury – Decker owners must be salivating as the Gophers face Michigan in the Dome, but Decker is dealing with a sprain and may have some lingering effects from the dropped pass that allowed Northwestern to score a pick-six to win the game in the final ten seconds. Stay tuned on Saturday morning injury updates as Drew updates my Breakfast Burrito article while I am headed to the mountains.
PRIMETIME
Michael Thomas and Rob Gronkowski, Arizona at Washington State – yes, those same Cougars who are worst in the nation in ppg allowed (49) and yards per point allowed (less than ten). YPPA is a part of the BlitzIndex and highlights how the offense puts the defense in bad situations and short fields.
Seji Ajirotutu, Fresno State hosts Nevada (105) – Nevada is horrible against the pass and allows 32 ppg. SA has been on my radar all year long as he impressed me in the opener at Rutgers but he has disappeared along with the BCS-busting hopes of the Bulldogs in general. All of a sudden, Seji went huge at Louisiana Tech (7-137T2) and a lot of that relates to their top two RBs out injured. Neither Ryan mathews nor Lonyae Miller are expected to play in this matchup with the Wolfpack looks like a great opportunity to follow through with another big game.
PINE TIME
Hakeem Nicks of UNC is hot, especially since teammate Brandon Tate was lost for the season. He is coming off a three TD game over BC. Unfortunately he must face The Ramblin Wreck of Georgia Tech D who is top quartile in only allowing 170 ypg passing and top 30 in TD allowed with only 9. Nix Nicks from your lineup.
Brandon Banks of K-State has cooled off quicker that the John McCain campaign in October. After starting the season off with 6 TD in the first four, the Big 12 “defenses” have only allowed Banks to score once. Next up, the underrated Missouri defense on the road, and the Tigers are fourth nationally in RZ conversion defense at home. No bailout for Banks – deposit on the bench.
Hit me up on the forum or on email ( vince [at] fcb [DOT] com ) before Saturday morning for your custom advice. Also, our College Football Historian and QB analyst Daniel Freer and I will be crushing some of the nation’s finest pizza at the Mellow Mushroom in Winter Park FL Thursday Night for the Utah-TCU tilt. Please stop by if you are in the area.
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