RB LaMichael James races to the top spot among all fantasy RBs. (Icon SMI)

Tier 1 – Above All Else

QB Andrew Luck decided to stay in school...Pac 12 defenses beware. (Icon SMI)

The newly minted Pac 12 now brings a wider assortment of potential fantasy talent to the season. As usual, the West Coast bias is in play here, leaving this as the last of the Big 6 conferences to report. We’ll look to start first with a breakdown on the Pac 12 QBs.

First Tier – Start worthy

Andrew Luck, Stanford – Much like Matt Leinert in years past, Luck decided to stay in school versus the riches of the NFL. Hopefully the decision works out better for him, especially considering HC Harbaugh went the other direction and jumped to the pros. Despite all that, our anticipation is that Luck will pass for over 3,000 yards, hit for 30+ TDs and be the #1 scoring QB out of the Pac 12. Be confident in selecting him, he’s playing for keeps this year. Read the rest of this entry →

On Monday we debuted our exclusive TEBOW rankings for the Fantasy College Football Invitational (FCFI) Expert League format (18 teams, 2QB, etc.), and I wanted to get new rankings for the major formats ahead of the weekend as this tends to be the first big draft weekend of the year.

Tim Tebow created one of the greatest seasons in college football history and won 2007 Heisman Trophy. His excellence inspired our model that will forever seek out the best players in the sport. (Icon SMI)

A refresher - Talent Excess Budgeted Over Walkon (TEBOW) applies some time-tested fantasy principles to CFO Drew Smith’s projections, helping you better prepare for your unique draft setups. I think I can credit Baseball Prospectus with the fantasy application Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) concept, in that any member of a fantasy roster only has value if expected to perform over the value of a player on the margin of the league’s starting lineup requirements.

So for our purposes, while Case Keenum is universally accepted as the creme de la creme of fantasy college QBs, his value to a given fantasy roster is determined by the value relative to a replacement QB in your league. Assuming a 16-team league, if you play 2 QBs his value is greater than in a 1QB league since the marginal utility is QB 33 versus QB17.

Got it? Not yet, please realize you can now compare the relative values among the positions to see who is a better overall pick. Compare Keenum’s TEBOW value versus Justin Blackmon or La Michael James and on down the line. We are going much deeper after the jump. (UPDATED WITH FULL RANKINGS ON BOTH FORMATS)

If you want custom work, email me at vince[AT]fantasycollegeblitz[dot]com and the only cost is telling a friend about the site. Find me on twitter @vincemullins too.

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After the Fantasy College Football Invitational (FCFI) Expert League Draft and my first foray in a 10-team, 29-round monstrosity run by superfan Neil Young, some adjustments heading into your draft weekend.

Indiana WR Damarlo Belcher 2011 draft stock reaches ever higher (Icon SMI)

Quick Notes: Lots of value at QB, Damarlo Belcher is no longer a value WR and Auburn finally named a starter.

Everybody jump! more notes if you

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Monday night I had the privilege of participating in the largest existing expert draft for fantasy college football.  The league is packed with the industry’s top minds and I was eager to make up for a disappointing showing last year.  I had the ironic luck of drawing the 1^st pick overall this season after having the last pick in the 2010 draft.  First pick overall, Case Keenum no brainer right? Not so fast! As many readers know, my general draft strategy is to bypass drafting quarterbacks early so picking 1^st with someone like Keenum out there proved to be quite the dilemma.

My overall strategy going into this draft was to draft a solid foundation early and then go after pure upside in the late rounds.  If choosing between a WR who I feel strongly will get 50 catches, 800 yards and 7 TDs with little chance of doing better and a WR who I might waive Week 2 but has the chance to be a Top 20 player…I planned on taking the pure upside guy.  Because I had the first pick, I am going to group my back-to-back picks together because technically I picked them together, not in different rounds.

1.1) LaMichael James, RB, Oregon

I might have been the first person in draft history to use their full 2-minutes on the draft clock to make the first pick in the draft but it was an internal struggle between the consensus #1 pick and my fundamental drafting beliefs.  In the end, despite the potential backlash, I had to be true to who I am and that meant passing on Keenum.

2.36) Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina

3.37) Royce Pollard, WR, Hawaii Read the rest of this entry →