If you have been around this site for any length of time (esp. back to the pre-Blogger custom made website abomination of 2005) you know that we prefer deductive reasoning – have an opinion, then gather the data and crunch the numbers in order to determine if your opinion is worth a crap.

Graham Harrell leaves Texas Tech after three years as starting QB, but the program will live on.

Sometimes it is, sometimes it is not. That is life my friends.

One thing I have found to work very well is the “Dynasty Study” which looks at three variables that mean the most to fantasy college football and see which schools and/or coaches consistently produce top-shelf offensive output.

Total offensive TDs, Yards per play and yards per game are scraped from the NCAA website, each variable is ranked one through 120.

Lots of numbers and the offenses to watch in 2009 after the jump.

Last month I looked only at the 2008 data and today I am looking at the three-year period of 2006 through 2008 to get a bigger picture look at what schools you should focus on for your fantasy research. I created two different scores – RAW means that each year’s results have an equal weight in the calcualtion (simple average) and a WEIGHTED score that gives added gravity to recent years (exponential or weighted moving average). I thought it would also be interesting to see how much RAW and WEIGHTED differed and found it gave me a momentum measurement – I highlighted the postive momentum in green and the negative momentum in red.
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As we begin our preparation for fantasy college football draft day 2009 (early guess is August 22), we always start from the top down and look at history to give us a framework for the future. Sure – great players graduate and make room for the stars of tomorrow, but what schools consistently produce top statistical performances?

As I have done since 2000 I gather the most fantasy related stats for every FBS team (including those pesky Western Kentucky Hilltoppers) – and once again the state of Oklahoma owns the scoreboards with OU and OSU in the Top Five but both yielding to the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes for the top spot for 2008′s offensive rankings.

Fantasycollegeblitz-dynasties-study-2008.pdf

For a refresher, I rank all teams by yards per play (YPP), yards per game (YPG) and touchdowns per game (TDGM) then add up the rankings. Like for Tiger Woods, lower scores are better…

The Sooner State continues to rule, as all three teams were in the Top Ten in 2007, and the Oklahoma State Cowboys show up in the Top Ten every year since 2006. It is likely that Tulsa could fall out of the top ten due to the departure of offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn to Auburn, but Head Coach Todd Graham promises to keep the offense going with the same schemes under Herb Hand.

Probably no shock that nine of the Top Ten are spread offenses (not Texas per se), as are fourteen of the top 20. Later this week I will look at three-year rolling periods and debut the 2006-8 total ranks. Stay tuned.

If you are forward-thinking enough to have searched for and found our site, I know that you are looking for insight that makes your draft preparation more effective, not just efficient.

When faced with 120 FBS schools (no more Division 1, you know), it is important to identify the schools and coaching staffs that consistently produce above average offensive numbers.

You already know that a Texas Tech WR has a better chance of outperformance rather than a WR from Ole Miss – this is the second year we have taken this concept to the next level with our Offensive Dynasty Study.

(Not endorsed by Joan Collins, Linda Evans, nor Heather Locklear)

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Time again to review who have been the best offenses over the last three years – we have found that many schools or even coordinators have an amazing track record of producing numbers every year and that should help narrow your focus on Draft Day.

This study uses team stats, not individual stats so this is not a tool to use by itself, you still need to do your depth chart research to layer upon this – for instance Navy led the nation the last three years in yards rushing but they usually split carries among four players. Expect that I will do that for our Preseason Owner Manual, but for now I wanted to put the stats on the site. As a quick back story, I have gone back to 2000 and ranked each college football offense on three variables:

• Yards per play (YPP) to gauge big-play ability
• Yards per game (YPG) since yards equal fantasy points
• Touchdowns per game (TDG) since we shouldn’t care so much about kicker points and defensive TDs.

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