The Odds and the End?

July 7th, 2008 by John Huss

This last chapter is a bit of a catch-all, covering topics that are worthy to make note of yet not enough to write another thesis. We have discussed the primary positions of QB, RB and WR. However, you draft much more than those positions. So the questions remains, what about the rest of your roster?

Draft for scarcity at WR, but not "special teams"

It is important that I take the time to clarify one thing from our previous chapter. If you take Vince and Drew’s argument that you need to draft wide-outs early based on scarcity, then you might conclude that you need to draft top tight ends, defenses and kickers early since there are so few great ones in the college game. Unfortunately, if you travel that path it will be your draft-day downfall. The production from kickers, tight ends and defenses is so tightly clustered together (meaning that the majority of the players in these categories score relatively the same amount of points) that I have a standing rule when drafting for those areas. I draft so that my last three picks are those "special teams" guys, obviously taking the best available one of those three first.

I also think so little of those positions from a fantasy impact to my team that I don’t draft backups at any of those spots. It is more important to me to use those 3 extra roster spots to pick up sleepers or depth at the main skill positions. If Drew and Vince are right that WR’s win championships, wouldn’t you want to take a shot at picking up a potential elite wide-out versus a scrub second kicker? If Daniel and I are right about RB’s being the centerpiece of your offense, wouldn’t you rather have an extra full time RB than a TE who touches the ball maybe twice a game? Either you strike fantasy gold on these sleepers or you at least build up trading pieces to upgrade your roster in-season. During the season, as you need a TE, Kicker or D/ST to cover a bye week, simply cut your weakest player and search the free agent pool.

In-Season Strategy Notes

When able, trade two solid players for one dominant player in order to improve your starting lineup. As you get closer to the end of the season, you want to maximize the production you get out of your starters. During the season, you need depth to ward off risk of injury and so you try to stockpile talent. As you near the trading deadline, your focus should shift to shoring up your starting lineup for that championship push. The best way to do this is to trade off some of your bench strength to gain that one player that significantly increases your weekly scoring potential. In my 2006 non-BCS league, I traded Akron WR David Harvey and Memphis QB Martin Hankins to get Houston QB Kevin Kolb. The other owner had drafted some highly rated WRs that didn’t pan out and his starting QB was Chase Holbrook. Moving Kolb allowed him to improve his WR situation. On paper, my two players equalled the value of Kolb but in reality the deal was Kolb for Harvey…a no-brainer for me to jump on to make my run. This trade was the difference between my team being a first round pretender to being in the championship game. Unfortunately, I ran into the buzzsaw that was Colt Brennan and Garrett Wolfe to fall short of my title. Still, this was a successful move no matter how you look at it.

Another thing that FantasyCollegeBlitz.com will bring you each week during the season is our exclusive BlitzIndex . This is a quant model developed by Vince Mullins to rank each defense based on a number of statistical factors. Not only does this allow you to make judgement calls on who to start and sit each week, it also provides you with a powerful tool to make key free agent acquisitions. In an earlier chapter, we mentioned "scour the waiver wire during the season and spot start WRs based on match ups to better maximize your chance for points instead of relying on "stud" wideouts." Our "Blitz Pattern" allows for this strategy to be implemented. Each week, if I didn’t like the matchups for the wideouts on my current roster, I looked for free agents that were going up against weak pass defenses.

For example late in 2007 Vince made a call that Army WR Jeremy Trimble should have a big game over a weak Tulsa squad ranked 98th and he went nuts with 11-168-T2. The ability to do this does depend somewhat on how many schools are included in your league and the size of each fantasy team’s roster. However, it was rare for me not to be able to find a gem for the week…a guy that could get me 80-100 yards and a TD from my second or third WR position. I was also able to use this strategy to better select my replacement kickers, TE’s and defenses.

Now some general points and guidelines:

1. Avoid Running backs by committee - unlike the pro game, there is enough talent out there that you shouldn’t find yourself picking up RBBC’s.

2. Draft defenses with good running games (chews up clock, less offensive plays against the defense).

3. Usually poor defenses leads to more offense, this might come in handy when using the "Blitz Index".

4. Consider drafting a #2 WR if the #1 WR is an all-world player…assuming it is a passing team (think of it as the "Reggie Wayne" rule)

5. Veteran QBs tend to make more plays such as converting 3rd downs which adds plays to the offense. This can lead to more chances for extra yards and TDs.

6. Drew Smith thinks the QB position is so deep that he will draft his starting QB when the first owner drafts his backup QB .

7. Vince Mullins likes to utilize the QB/Kicker hedge . This is when you pick up the kicker from the same team as your starting QB. The idea is that if the QB comes up short of scoring TD’s on long drives, you at least get the FG. If he does light it up, you at least get the XP.

8. On the flip side, we don’t think it is a good idea to pair up QB/RB or QB/WR combo’s from the same team. If the QB does well, it’s likely the RB had less of a fantasy impact. Also, if the QB does poorly, then you know your WR did less.

Hopefully, you have found this information insightful and beneficial to your draft research. Now that you have read our Owner’s Playbook, you can add our homepage to your favorites. Our site will provide you with tons of free information such as our draftkit, player rankings, commentary from our staff writers, an in-season newsletter and the Blitz Forum. The Blitz Forum is a great place for the fantasy college football community to ask questions and share news from around the nation. Additionally, feel free to contact any of the writers from this site with questions. Now get out there, beat your friends, take the title and then take their girlfriends!

Vince Mullins – vince@fantasycollegeblitz.com

John Huss – huss@fantasycollegeblitz.com

Drew Smith – drew@fantasycollegeblitz.com

Daniel Freer – daniel@fantasycollegeblitz.com

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