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The Trend is Your Friend in Michigan
By John Huss | June 20, 2008
There are many examples where a trend can lead to success. Apple Computer and the iPod. Investors and oil stocks. Marvel Comics and blockbuster movie after blockbuster movie. It’s no different in fantasy sports.
However, the trend can become distorted as coaches switch teams and players graduate or go pro. The best we can do is dissect the past and see if we can forecast the future.
One change this off-season is Rich Rodriguez (right, Icon SMI) taking the helm at Michigan. His track record speaks for itself and now he gets the Wolverine prestige to help him recruit talent.
However, we have seen those resources not fully utilized in the past.
Cue in Rich Rod’s spread option offense, which put West Virginia on the map. Of course, he brings this offensive scheme to a school built around a different plan and personnel. Also, if we go back to his first season at West Virginia, we are quick to find that he tallied 3 wins against 8 losses. By the way, those wins were against Ohio, Kent State and Rutgers (your fathers Rutgers…not today’s winning version).
His first team was only able to put up 21 points per game. The scoring average looks even worse when you take out the 3 TDs that the Defense/Special Teams scored. Quarterback Brad Lewis was more of a drop back passer, averaging 22 passes per game with very little results. The lone fantasy gem was at running back. RB Avon Cobourne rushed for 1,298 yards and score 9 TDs. He was able to average 4.9 yards per game, an impressive number considering the woeful offense.
Jump ahead to the next season and the magic starts to form in West Virginia. Taking over at QB is Rasheed Marshall . The pass attempts dropped while the legs became a weapon. Marshall threw for 1,619 yards yet ran for an additional 666 yards. There was also a drastic shift in TD’s from the position as rushing TDs (12) outnumbered passing scores (9). RB Cobourne progressed further as the featured back, increasing his yards to 1,710 and his TDs to 17. All in all, WVU went from a team that scored 21 ppg in 2001 to a team that averaged almost 31 ppg the following year. The benefit of the increased scoring was a team record of 9-4 and a bowl game.
Last year Michigan put up almost 27 ppg in 2007. Some of the main personnel are gone (Chad Henne, Mike Hart, Mario Manningham ). However, the team returns some interesting talent. WR Greg Matthews caught 39 passes for 366 yards and 3 TDs. Many will dismiss him simply based on the perception that Rodriguez’s offense isn’t kind to WRs. However, in 2003, Chris Henry put up 1,006 yards and 10 TDs for WVU. The following season he compiled 872 yards with 12 TDs. Last season, Darius Reynaud had 733 yards and scored 12 times thru the air. He also tacked on another 100 yards and a TD via the ground. This is evidence that Rich Rod will try to maximize the talent he has so that he can win games.
The best value will come from the RB position this year. We just need to see who wins the battle between Brandon Minor or Carlos Brown . In just about equal playing time last year, Carlos Brown was more impressive. He had a higher average YPC, he scored more TDs and he broke a big run for a score when he went 85 yards against Minnesota. That’s not to say that Minor is second fiddle. It will simply be a matter of who takes better to the new offense.
Based on these points, I expect Michigan to take a step back this year. This is so they can take 2 or 3 forward in the coming years. It’s also highly probable that scoring will be down from last year. From a fantasy perspective, whoever wins the tailback job is going to be a solid choice for your starting backfield. I’ll leave the final analysis to Drew Smith and his RB Rankings (top 25 by month’s end, top 50 the week after that). I also think Matthews is an intriguing choice at WR as he will likely go untouched in your draft. If Rodriguez uses him more like Chris Henry instead of like Brandon Myles (there is a reason you don’t know that name), he could surprise. The real fantasy bonanza will come next season when iPods, oil stocks and blockbuster hero movies are joined by Wolverine statistical dominance.
Topics: Big 10, College Football, John Huss, The Trend is Your Friend |
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