Michael Crabtree (left, Icon SMI) had one of the better fantasy seasons by a wide receiver in the last 20 years and there are already people predicting an even better season this year.  There are plenty of factors that appear to play into this thinking.  One is the fact that Texas Tech has an easier schedule this year.  Also, the WR corp as a whole is a lot more inexperienced, meaning that they will need to rely on Crabtree even more.  Lastly, Crabtree was only a freshman last year therefore another year in the offense will make him even stronger.

All of these things sound great, and it is easy to buy into the notion that Crabtree will be looking to set receiving records this yea.r.  However, not only does history says this is obviously unlikely but it actually says that Crabtree will be hard press to even come close to his 2007 stats.

Let’s take a look at the numbers going back to the 2000 season.

Crabtree last year had the line of 134-1,962-22 for 328 Fantasy Points (FP), which was the first time a WR broke the 300 FP barrier since 2000.  In fact there has only been 17 wideouts to even break 200 FP during this period.

Only 1 out of the 17 saw improved stats the season following them breaking 200+ FP

Only 2 out of the 17 actually posted 200+ FP season the next year

Let’s look even deeper…

–14 of the 17 WRs who posted 200+ FP saw their fantasy production fall by 15%+ the next season.

–9 of the 17 WRs saw their fantasy production fall by 25%+

–On average as a group the fantasy production fell 31% the next season but this number is inflated because Bernard Berrian and Martin Nance got injured early the next season.

–If you remove Berrian and Nance, we still saw a decrease on average of 23%.

Does all this mean that Crabtree can not match or exceed last year’s numbers?  The answer is obviously no.  He might actually be that once in every 25 year type fantasy player.  Does this mean that Crabtree should not be the #1 WR taken?  Once again the answer is no.  Even with a 23% average decrease, Crabtree would be looking at a season with 267 FPs.  This is still a Top 5 season by a WR since 2000.

I am sure some of you are getting ready to email me to tell me that I am dead wrong about Crabtree and that I am clueless.  However, while it seems like I am picking on Crabtree, really I am only looking at the raw data of all WRs in this decade.  Whether you think Crabtree is a special talent that will go against history is one thing, but what about the other 200+ FP receivers that are returning this year (Dante Love and Casey Fitzgerald) and what about them going forward?  There are always players that go against history but if you understand that the odds are against you, it will allow you to better manage the risk/reward of a likely high draft pick.

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